Let's clean out the notebook, election special as of Tuesday afternoon ...
Here is my best take: Yes, Trump is technically behind but some battleground states are getting tighter. Florida and (shockingly) Texas are practically tied in some polls. Texas leans Trump and as I speak the Real Clear Politics average just changed to show Trump may now be going ahead in Florida. Some are still saying Florida is necessary, and it could be a state that reports early.
Michigan seems firm for Biden; Minnesota may be tighter. Pennsylvania, thanks to urban areas to the east end, are firming up somewhat for Biden to me, but officials there have been nervous for an operational meltdown or political Hail Marys, even to the point of the Legislature declaring problems and deciding the electoral votes itself. I would say Georgia leans Trump but there is not only talk of turnout and polling showing that state could not only go for Biden, but that its two Senate races could go Democratic. Might not happen, but not far fetched, either.
Of course, Biden remains fairly steady in Real Clear Politics' average of polls, to show him with 232 Electoral Votes to 125 for Trump, with the rest, 181, being toss up states. The case remains that Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania would be enough, and states like Nevada and North Carolina are leaning for Biden. If the election were held a week out, Biden, who needs 270 Electoral Votes, would have 311 to 227 for Trump. But the RCP national average and battleground averages are tightening in margins, and they appear to be moving in favor of Trump in some states. Georgia, Florida, Iowa and Ohio averages are razor thin.
I've never forgotten the lesson that if Gerald Ford had a few more weeks, based on trends, he would have beat Jimmy Carter. Moreover, we are seeing massive turnouts, with young people coming out in incredible numbers; we know many of them will break nationally for Biden. But Republicans are expected to turn out in person on Election Day in many areas, making up for early Democratic leads.
The last debate didn't move the needle much and we haven't seen any more breaking items. In fact, some question if filling the Supreme Court seat relaxes some GOP voters on any urgency to vote, but it could also make them satisfied to vote Trump. The president's problem is he has not pushed hard enough about the appointment, the economy and other talking points his staff want him to, and instead he grumbles about old enemies, the media and other rabbit trails. But it is clear that Trump still has great segments of supporters, and not just in the South. Rural areas are all in for him.
Let me be clear: I really don't know who is going to win the White House. No one does. Polling has been improved and adjusted but no one completely trusts it. We have turnout no one has seen in years anyway, and technical and legal issues never seen - even the U.S. Postal Service is doubted now. Oh, yeah, and we have a pandemic and no one can campaign like they want to - except the president, and that has become an issue itself.
You can't predict this one. All we can say is that we are going to have to wait out the next few days. Good luck to us all, because we are going to need it.
Meanwhile, there are elections in Walker County. They scheduled it and everything. If I wasn't contracted to report for the Associated Press that night (with all the paperwork and phone calling that comes with it), I would be bored for my Eagle story. The only thing I don't know is how the amendments will go. State Amendments 2-4 are fine, but the first one is so silly as a populist thing, and it doesn't really affect anything about the right to vote. Amendments 5-6 are for Franklin and Lauderdale counties if you want to skip.
I would strongly agree with the two local amendments as needed, and they should be approved; they should improve the probate operation and save millions on retirement methods.
As for candidates, if you are a Republican, you are going to win in Walker County and Alabama. This is Trump country, and straight ticket balloting will be big. For that matter, Trump will take Alabama easily. The Doug Jones commercials might have helped him in his Senate re-election bid, but he still has to be considered the underdog to Tommy Tuberville. If Jones pulls this off, he will be a political genius.
I was a little shocked to hear Circuit Clerk Susan Odom urge people to not mail in absentees at the last minute, but I am hearing similar concerns elsewhere, and it does make sense. If you mail it by regular mail, it goes to Birmingham and wastes a day. And what if you have mistakes that need correcting?
At this point, the safest bet may indeed be best to hand in an absentee or vote in person at Odom's office, unless you are well, well versed in the absentee process and are used to the complicated requirements, such as witnesses and copies of the voter ID and the envelopes. The other option would be to take it in person to her office filled out, or to mail it at the inside window counter at the Jasper Post Office, which allows Odom's staff to directly pick it up. (By the way, today is the last day to apply for an absentee ballot.)
And, of course, there is voting in person. I think poll workers will try to make it as hygienic as possible. The biggest question there, and which has started to gnaw at me, is have the poll workers been given enough time to handle the new electronic poll books, which they are just now getting in time for the biggest election in ages?
This is not a question of the equipment being too complicated ever; they will get the hang of it in time. The workers were all were given copies of the training videos to take home, which I think was fantastic. And I know this will be great equipment. Secretary of State John Merrill pushed to get the tablets in place for Tuesday, but I hope we haven't rushed it to cause problems or delays on a busy day.
Which leads me to another point: Let's have patience on Election Day. The poll workers are having to deal with cleaning for the virus, new equipment (including new tabulation machines, albeit very similar to the old machines), expected large turnout and such. It is not going to be an especially easy day for anyone. Officials - and I - are urging you to be patient as you go through to give them time to deal with all of this.
There are also concerns that many of you have questions and concerns about the security. The only thing I can think of that would be a security matter would be in mailing the absentees, and I've told you how you can vote in person or hand it in securely. Everything else will be as normal. Ballots are locked up, even in the tabulation machines once entered. The Walker County Sheriff's Department also has a major role in each countywide election; poll watchers are assigned by the parties. And the tabulation equipment uses flash drives and paper ballots; it is not connected to the internet and thus cannot be hacked.
And the state system has been working with law enforcement at the highest levels, all of which are on watch for state hacks. They may also be called by anyone to report voting fraud and civil rights abuse. Assistant United States Attorney Jason R. Cheek can be reached by the public at (205) 244-2001. FBI agents can also be called at 205-326-6166. Complaints about possible violations of the federal voting rights laws can be called in to the Civil Rights Division in Washington, D.C., by at 800-253-3931 or https://ift.tt/2D290lk. And acts of intimidation and violence should be called in first to 911.
For that matter, if anyone has any other concerns or questions, I would say - in order not to slow down the lines on Election Day - it would be best to call any number of officials in advance, including the probate judge, the circuit clerk, the sheriff, the board of registrars, or the secretary of state, or their staffs. The Secretary of State's Office can be reached at 1-800-274-8683. One can also go to www.alabamavotes.gov for maybe the best and official website on elections in Alabama.
But again, let's be patient, and kind, and understanding. And however we do it, and no matter who we vote for, let's all vote.
Ed Howell is news editor of the Daily Mountain Eagle. He can be reached at 205-221-2840 or at ed.howell@mountaineagle.com.
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October 29, 2020 at 10:46AM
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Let's all be patient on Election Day - Daily Mountain Eagle
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